Oct 9th 2008 DUBAIFrom The Economist print edition
Is Dubai being hit by the turmoil?
YOU may have thought that if anywhere would be insulated from the financial chaos, it would be Dubai, the ritzy commercial capital of the oil-rich Gulf. Not so. Events across the world are causing pain there too, even though much of the emirate’s cash has not made its way to the banks; it is held by ruling families and in their sovereign wealth funds.
Dubai’s oil revenues are small. Sheikh Muhammad bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the energetic ruler of the second largest emirate of the seven that make up the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has chosen to diversify, especially into real estate, as his way forward. Investors in Dubai property have done well in recent years, enjoying returns of 80%.
Two factors have underpinned prices. The first is negative real (ie, below-inflation) interest rates, which track those in the United States. Borrowers can apply to banks and still borrow very cheaply. And since some think the official inflation rate seriously underestimates price increases in Dubai, there is a big incentive to borrow from banks and invest somewhere else.
The second factor is the continuing influx of workers into the emirate. Less than a fifth of Dubai’s 1.5m people are local. Many of the immigrants are building workers from South Asia who are provided with accommodation during their stay, but not in the smart apartment blocks that Dubai developers favour.
Bad timing
Then, over the summer, Morgan Stanley issued a note which said that Dubai property prices would fall by 10% by 2010. Quite simply, there may not be enough demand for the wave of new property coming onto the market. To a society used to easy returns, this was a shock. The report coincided with a withdrawal of deposits and investments from the UAE by speculative investors who had previously been betting that local currencies would shoot up as Gulf states let go of their dollar pegs to deal with double-digit inflation. But things did not work out like that. The dollar strengthened, so the bet failed and speculative flows went home. As a result, there was less cash sloshing around in the Gulf.
It was the wrong time, then, for a slew of corruption allegations. Since April, investigations have centred on Dubai Islamic Bank, an institution with a history of problems, and on various mortgage lenders and developers. Those investigated include a minister of state and two Britons. Sheikh Muhammad made a rare public announcement recently to say that the public prosecutor would not tolerate “illegal profits”. The investigations are thought to be continuing; no charges have been made.
At this week’s Cityscape real-estate conference, the emirate’s pushy public-relations people were busy pretending nothing was amiss. Nakheel, a state-backed developer, said it would build another tower block that would be the tallest building in the world, even higher than today’s tallest, the Burj Dubai. Another developer heralded a spectacular new development called Jumeirah Gardens, at an estimated cost of 350 billion dirhams ($95 billion).
The markets have been less impressed. So far this year, shares in the Dubai Financial Market have lost 48% of their value. Emaar, a high-profile developer, fell from a high of 15.7 dirhams to 5.5 on October 9th. In another sign that not all is well, the Dubai authorities merged two Islamic mortgage lenders, Amlak Finance and Tamweel; the latter is one of the firms involved in the investigation. Some of the more sober developers, Tamweel included, have stopped the widespread practice of “flipping”—paying only a percentage of the purchase price of a property and selling it on before instalment payments begin.
Dubai is not going to go bust. The state controls the larger property developers and can alter supply and demand by releasing land when and how it wants. Average percentage yields from rented properties are still in the high single digits, so demand persists. Business people are still likely to come to the Gulf. But expect more mergers along the lines of Amlak and Tamweel. Some smaller developers may go bust. The huge profits of the past will dip.
